Nuclear Landscape: Why Compromise won't Occur .:. grubbykid.com

Nuclear Landscape: Why Compromise won't Occur

In the last post, I discussed the current Nuclear Option schedule, and the chance for a compromise. I doubted that a compromise could occur, but not because of outside interest groups, which has become the meme the Beltway Press is now pushing. And not without hard work by the grown-ups in the GOP, namely, Senator John Warner, among a host of others. Compromise won't occur because there is too much at stake, and Senator Frist has painted the Senate into the corner not only on the Nuclear Option, but by how he runs the Senate.

For a compromise to work Republicans must promise to set aside the Nuclear Option, especially for Supreme Court nominations. Democrats must promise not to filibuster current judicial nominations. Finally some sort of compromise on the Supreme Court between Republicans and Democrats must occur - because this current impasse is just Spring Training for the Supreme Court nominations. All of this must occur for Republicans (read: Senator Frist) to claim victory. Democrats must retain the Cloture Rule, and the larger rule of law, to claim victory - these judges are pretty bad, but losing the fulcrum the Filibuster gives the Minority party is much greater than a few judges. This is what is in play: the Supreme Court and the future nomination of Chief Justice and perhaps as many as two Associate Justices.

But again: this isn't directly about filibusters or judges. This fight is about the Rule of Law, and whether we allow a "Might makes Right" precedent to rule the Senate. This is about the Republicans willingly breaking Senate Rules with the use of the ~~Nuclear~~ Nuclear Option.

Compromise like along the lines above won't happen: there is too much at stake, and frankly Senator Frist is the one who has painted the Senate into the corner with his constant bleating and promises to use the Nuclear Option. You add in the toxic nature of Dobson and Pat Robertson calling for changing the Senate Rules by any means necessary, and Frist can't step back without losing his meal-ticket to nomination in 2008. Furthermore, Frist can't step back; anything less than a change of Senate Rules via the Nuclear Option is a loss.

That isn't to say that some GOP Senators who have equal aspirations for the Presidency in 2008 won't try to derail Senator Frist; a no vote by Senator McCain, Allen (R-VA), or Hagel would set them apart from the current crop of Dobson-lead Senators, much like Senator Voinovich did during the John Bolton nomination hearings. Recently Hagel has had his faintheart broken by the GOP machine, and looks to be voting in favor of the Nuclear Option.

All of this doesn't explain why rank-and-file GOP Senators are going along with breaking Senate Rules. One theory is that there is a large age gap in the Senate GOP caucus between the Freshmen and Junior Senators, such as Frist (R-TN), All Democrats are Nazi's Santorum (R-PA) and Coburn (R-OK) and the elder Senators such as Senator McCain (R-AZ), Hegel (R-NE), and Specter (R-PA). The divide comes because the younger set haven't served though long stretches of the Senate where they have been in the minority. They haven't served under a system where the weight of institutional power is brought down upon them, forcing compromise.

These younger Senators also owe their power in part to the "Gingrich Revolution," but recently to Bushism in general: a winner-take-all mentality which has recently pervaded the GOP caucus. Frankly, it seems like they just don't care about the rules, tend to lie about what the Constitution says, and lie about blocking Judicial Nominees while in the minority, when winning is more important. This is Bushism, and I am writing a longer article about this, which should be finished shortly.

Lastly, Freshmen and Junior Senators lack the institutional and long standing financial donors which the elder statesmen on both sides of the aisle enjoy. Therefore, they are more susceptible to leveraging by outfits like Dobson and Robertson. They are also great beneficiaries of the Santorum-Delay built K-Street Project of powerful, Republican dominated, lobbying groups.

In the end my prediction is that the Republicans will use the Nuclear Option, breaking Senate Rules by the slimmest of margins. The best political outcome for Democrats - besides winning the Nuclear Option vote - is the vote ending in a 50-50 tie, with Vice President Cheney as Senate Pro Tempores casting the tie-breaker. How great would that be!? Explicitly showing the nation that this fight is not over judges, but over power - especially Executive power. Cheney acting in a way which was antithetical to the second Vice President, Thomas Jefferson would be a great political gift to the Democrats.

I honestly hope that some sort of compromise can occur, but if that does not happen, I hope that the grown-ups in the GOP come to their senses.

Nuclear Landscape: Why Compromise won't Occur

Comments

Post a comment