The sky is blue too: Terror Warnings boost President
I'm with Kevin - this study documents something that many people have already suspected: Terrorist warnings boost Bush approval ratings:
When the federal government issues a terrorist warning, presidential approval ratings jump, a Cornell University sociologist finds. Interestingly, terrorist warnings also boost support for the president on issues that are largely irrelevant to terrorism, such as his handling of the economy.
..."Results showed that terror warnings increased presidential approval ratings consistently," says [researcher Robb] Willer. "They also increased support for Bush's handling of the economy. The findings, however, were inconclusive as to how long this halo effect lasts."
You can read the study entitled, THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT-ISSUED TERROR WARNINGS ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS (pdf) printed in the Sept. 30 issue of Current Research in Social Psychology. Now to be fair, this report says nothing about the correlation of terror warning with events - such as the naming of John Edwards as the Democratic VP candidate, or say the Democratic National Convention, or whenever Tom Ridge gets excited. While the researchers found that the warnings to affect the President's approval rating, no conclusive duration of effect could be determined. However in one test they show that the minimum duration of effect is one week (model 2). When multiple terror warnings follow in short duration, the effects multiplied (model 3 & 4).
[A] terror warning leads to an average increase in the president's approval rating of 2.75% and the increase lasts for about a week — possibly two weeks at the outside. The results are statistically significant at a very high level and (assuming I read the report correctly) Willer properly controlled for major events like 9/11 and the capture of Saddam Hussein.
So the October Surprise will happen in last weeks of October. I'm betting on October 17. Why? That is enough time for public reaction to go through a few positive/negative cycles toward the Bush Administration. Do I really think that the Bush Administration has Osama in custody and will parade him to affect elections? Well, no; if the Bush Administration had Osama they would be parading him around the world right now trying to influence the election.
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This is the permanent home of The sky is blue too: Terror Warnings boost President. I wrote this post at 08:32 on October 5, 2004. This post is part of grubbykid.com, a weblog. If you liked this entry, why don't you read some other posts such as Star Wars Chronology or David Bernstein: Save the Great White Males? Or you could go to the site archives or return home. All are good choices.
